Description

This analysis provides a forecast of AR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-02-16 5.373923 6.405099 7.546533 8.898934 10.452502 12.176127 14.227748
2025-02-23 3.525337 4.815020 6.407630 8.496654 11.139763 14.345986 18.499587
2025-03-02 2.406570 3.720310 5.508556 8.068916 11.580037 16.158301 22.498794
2025-03-09 1.795594 3.099693 5.032526 8.013593 12.383007 18.422361 27.239227
2025-03-16 1.352488 2.590860 4.576811 7.852560 12.944213 20.345421 31.645456
2025-03-23 1.147450 2.401844 4.550824 8.296008 14.398450 23.628953 38.222128
2025-03-30 0.936490 2.142580 4.348082 8.402160 15.311179 26.159018 43.872516
2025-04-06 0.761698 1.902058 4.123397 8.418742 16.052674 28.458352 49.321699
2025-04-13 0.620174 1.688515 3.901504 8.392822 16.696366 30.628348 54.702045
2025-04-20 0.570781 1.663445 4.037388 9.036732 18.558572 34.919888 63.763362
2025-04-27 0.495608 1.556689 3.984632 9.304136 19.759868 38.180468 71.338495
2025-05-04 0.438417 1.478436 3.976444 9.653041 21.135743 41.827644 79.777509
2025-05-11 0.361675 1.328472 3.788059 9.621012 21.817738 44.371309 86.623552
2025-05-18 0.284063 1.148849 3.493580 9.318674 21.940774 45.930918 91.893101
2025-05-25 0.217289 0.974844 3.171879 8.899958 21.773075 46.930735 96.227447
2025-06-01 0.178238 0.876452 3.023219 8.855595 22.372153 49.407399 103.379825
2025-06-08 0.142515 0.773362 2.836293 8.685801 22.676170 51.326933 109.610725
2025-06-15 0.130838 0.760208 2.906700 9.170944 24.471238 56.297056 121.845508
2025-06-22 0.111569 0.705764 2.839462 9.287307 25.437993 59.662995 131.194391
2025-06-29 0.093313 0.646193 2.741543 9.305637 26.176627 62.608820 139.889006
2025-07-06 0.077279 0.588018 2.633326 9.277505 26.799094 65.349908 148.325636
2025-07-13 0.074893 0.601159 2.774641 9.978499 29.246204 72.073610 164.988270
2025-07-20 0.066545 0.576369 2.775124 10.269422 30.709113 76.783945 177.837066